In 2024, we are on track for the hottest year on record, as the world experiences a streak of unprecedented heat since June 2023. Human-driven climate change and the El Niño effect have combined to make it highly likely, with a 95% chance, that 2024 will surpass all previous records.
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
2024 is poised to become the world’s hottest recorded year due to consistent record-breaking temperatures. The streak of unprecedented heat since June 2023, combined with human-driven climate change and the El Niño effect, makes it likely, with a 95% chance, to surpass all previous records.
Unprecedented Heat
Last month was the hottest June on record, according to the EU’s climate change monitoring service. With a series of exceptional temperatures, scientists now consider 2024 a candidate for the world’s hottest recorded year. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported this in a monthly bulletin, which highlighted an unbroken record of hot months.
Since June 2023, we’ve been experiencing the highest temperatures for each corresponding month in recorded history. This streak of heat has put 2024 on track to dethrone 2023 as the warmest year on record. The combination of human-caused climate change and the natural weather phenomenon known as El Niño has contributed to this escalation.
A Global Concern
Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, estimates an approximately 95% chance that 2024 will surpass previous records. The implications are already tangible, with more than 1,000 people succumbing to the heat during the hajj pilgrimage. In New Delhi and Greece, heat deaths have spiked due to prolonged and intense heatwaves.
Imperial College London’s climate scientist Friederike Otto emphasizes that while El Niño is natural and cyclical, the burning of oil, gas, and coal is not. These human activities are the primary drivers of climate change, and unlike El Niño, they can be stopped. As the world awaits the transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions, we’re reminded by C3S that our greenhouse gas emissions have been persistently pushing temperatures up for decades.
The Data Speaks
C3S’ records date back to 1940, and cross-referencing with other data sets has confirmed that we are experiencing an unprecedented heat phase. The 12-month period ending this June marked the highest average temperature for such a timeframe, at 1.64 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Despite international pledges to combat climate change, collective efforts to curb emissions have not been successful. These emissions are the core cause of the warming climate, and as temperatures continue to rise, we’re facing a future where extreme heat becomes the norm, rather than the exception.
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
2024 is poised to become the world’s hottest recorded year due to consistent record-breaking temperatures. The streak of unprecedented heat since June 2023, combined with human-driven climate change and the El Niño effect, makes it likely, with a 95% chance, to surpass all previous records.
Why is 2024 experiencing unprecedented heat?
Since June 2023, the world has been experiencing a streak of unprecedented heat, with each corresponding month setting new temperature records. This escalation has been attributed to a combination of human-caused climate change and the natural weather phenomenon known as El Niño.
What are the global implications of 2024 potentially being the hottest year on record?
The implications of 2024 potentially being the hottest year on record are already being felt globally. Heat-related deaths have increased in areas like New Delhi and Greece due to prolonged and intense heatwaves. The burning of oil, gas, and coal has been identified as the primary driver of climate change, leading to escalating temperatures and extreme weather events.
What does the data show about the current heat phase in 2024?
Data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirms that we are currently experiencing an unprecedented heat phase. The 12-month period ending in June marked the highest average temperature for such a timeframe, at 1.64 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Despite international efforts to combat climate change, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, leading to a future where extreme heat may become the norm.
